Tag Archives: InTrade

Prediction Markets here to stay?

Web2.0 is all about contributions from end-users aka. The wisdom of the Crowds. Prediction Markets are a very efficient way to consolidate that wisdom which can be found in various nooks and crannies. If this concept is new to you, read Wikipedia for a primer. If not, read on.

Prediction Markets always receive a huge surge around election time because studies have shown that with enough activity they are more accurate predictors than polls. This year InTrade.com went very mainstream getting mentions on numerous news reports and getting link outs from Yahoo and other mainstream online information providers.

There was a move by DARPA in 2003 to use a prediction market to predict terrorist activity. While ideally that was a good approach to help understand the threat at any given moment, someone forgot to consider that most Americans don’t currently understand the concept of a prediction market and so just heard, “We are going to be betting on terrorist attacks”. You can imagine that program was shut down quickly.

So, will Prediction Markets maintain their momentum post-election this time around? I certainly hope so. We have learned from the worldwide financial crisis that we need people who make decision to have more information at their disposal rather than less. BI, Balanced Scorecards, and, yes, prediction markets should be getting attention/funding from those who feel that their organization is being led too much from “the gut”.

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